NDA insiders claim that BJP’s push for women’s reservation in Lok Sabha and Assemblies may lead to an increase of 3-5% women votes in the alliance’s share in Bengal and Tamil Nadu polls
Exuding confidence, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, addressing a press conference in Kolkata on Friday, said that in the first phase of the West Bengal elections in 152 seats, the BJP “is winning more than 110”, and that together with the second phase seats, the party is set to form a government with “a decisive majority”.
“Based on the feedback we have received, the people of Bengal have already decided their future in the first phase itself… Voting across 152 seats in 16 districts, with a turnout of 92.88%, clearly indicates that Didi is on her way out and the BJP is set to come in,” Shah told reporters.
“Fear will go, and trust will come. After conducting an internal assessment late (Thursday) night with all our party workers, I want to clearly state that out of 152 seats, the BJP is set to win more than 110 seats,” he added.
NDA insiders claim that the BJP’s push for women’s reservation in the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies may lead to an increase of 3-5% women votes in the alliance’s share in the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu elections.
Some NDA leaders likened the women’s quota as a poll plank to key Central government’s announcements, such as an income tax waiver for income up to Rs 12.5 lakh, which led to the BJP’s successful bid in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections.
“The issue of women’s reservation and the Opposition defeating the related Constitutional amendment Bill are being seen as a significant BJP plank that can help the NDA achieve an extra 3% to 5% of the women’s vote share in elections in both Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, where female voters hold sway,” a BJP source said.
Backed by the RSS for its anti-Opposition messaging on the ground, sources said the BJP camp has planned a 15-day outreach on the women’s quota issue, which is expected to continue into early May. Ahead of Thursday’s voting, such a narrative was tied in with the party’s pitch against incumbency and dynastic politics in both states.
While the issue was brought to centre-stage in Tamil Nadu by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself a day after the Constitutional amendment Bill fell in the Lok Sabha on April 17, BJP insiders said it will be given more teeth by its national leadership between the two poll phases in Bengal.
Shortly before he addressed the nation on the women’s reservation issue on April 18, Modi had, at a rally in Tamil Nadu’s Coimbatore, sought to underline that after the legislation’s passage in 2023, the BJP-led NDA took “a historic step towards implementing women’s reservation”, as part of which he personally requested every political party to support it.
“I told them they may take the credit – I only want our sisters to come to Parliament in greater numbers. But unfortunately, these noble efforts were delayed. The DMK, Congress, and their allies made this Bill a target of hatred. If this Bill had been passed earlier, many Tamil women from ordinary families would have become MPs and MLAs,” he said.
On Thursday, both Tamil Nadu, which voted in a single phase election, and Bengal saw record voter turnout, as per the Election Commission (EC)’s figures. While Bengal saw turnout hit 92.88% in the first-phase seats, up from 82.3% in 2021, Tamil Nadu saw its turnout rise to 85.15% across all its 234 seats from 73.6% in 2021. In both states, women’s turnout exceeded that of men – in Bengal, it was 92.69% against 90.92%, while in Tamil Nadu, it was 85.76% against 83.57%. In 2021, the gap between male and female turnout was narrower. Moreover, women’s turnout rose by more percentage points than men’s turnout from 2021 in both states.
In Bengal, there are 3.16 crore women voters as compared to 3.28 crore male voters among the 6.44 crore electors. In 2021, the female-male comparison was 3.59 crore against 3.74 crore. Women’s turnout rose from 81.75% in 2021 to 92.69% this year.
In 2021, the ruling Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) had claimed 48.02% of the vote share, well ahead of the BJP’s 38.1%, with the Congress trailing at 10%.
Women voters outnumber men in Tamil Nadu, accounting for 2.89 crore of the state’s total of 5.67 crore electors, compared to 2.77 crore men. In 2021, too, there were more women electors than men – 3.19 crore against 3.09 crore. Women’s turnout rose from 72.61% in 2021 to 85.76% this year.
In 2021, the BJP had secured 2.62% of the vote share in Tamil Nadu while its NDA ally AIADMK had managed 33.29%. In contrast, the ruling DMK had secured 37.7% votes while its ally Congress had won 4.27% votes.
‘Key poll plank’
RSS sources said that women’s reservation was among several issues that had been fanned by it on the ground in both Tamil Nadu and Bengal, which the Sangh sees as “exceptionally women-driven” when it comes to voting patterns.
“Women’s reservation, which was stalled by the Opposition, has been added to the vimarsh (consultation) pamphlets circulated among voters by the Sangh on the ground and is certainly generating traction, as expected, in both states which have significant numbers of female electors,” an RSS source said.
